by Kerry Lynch – June 22, 2021, 8:31 AM
New market entrants such as the Gulfstream G700 are anticipated to help propel dollar and delivery volume over the next five years, Global Jet Capital said in its first-ever business jet forecast.
The new and preowned business jet market is forecast to combine for $162.1 billion in total transactions with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.4 percent through 2025, according to a forecast released today by Global Jet Capital (GJC). The business aviation financial provider’s first-ever full market forecast provides a picture of both preowned and new aircraft transactions aircraft across geographical market segments and aircraft sizes.
“Our understanding of the market really needs to be holistic,” said GJC chief marketing officer Andrew Farrant, adding this includes having data on both sides of the market. Farrant told AIN that the forecast might appear more conservative because its transaction figures are based on residual values, rather than OEM list prices that some other forecasts may use.
Looking at both new and preowned aircraft, the forecast predicts transaction volume will be up by 5.5 percent from 2020 to 2021 and dollar volume by 15.5 percent. Over the five-year period, the market is expected to grow from 3,308 transactions worth $29.3 billion this year to 3,743 worth $36.3 billion in 2025.
“We do see this as a resilient, mature industry and Covid really proved that. This forecast really sees this industry building on that resiliency,” said GJC market intelligence analyst Bill Ostrove.
The forecast shows a rebound in 2021 for new business jets after the pandemic-related constraints spurred a 24.2 percent drop in deliveries with a 16.4 percent slide in dollar volume in 2020 when compared with 2019. In 2021, new business jet delivery volume is anticipated to jump back up by 11.8 percent and dollar volume by 13.9 percent this year. This delivery increase should be notable in the second half of the year.
However, GJC believes it will be 2023 before the deliveries return to 2019 levels and 2024 before the market sees another more significant jump. While supply constraints play into that, Farrant also noted that business jet makers have become more disciplined in their production planning after learning their lesson from the overproduction in the 2000s and the subsequent precipitous drop in the market. “This is a market that has gone through a significant stage of maturation over the past decade.”
The increase in the latter part of the forecast period will come as buyers are further removed from the Covid-19 pandemic, more new buyers filter into the market, and new models come into the market. Another factor is the preowned market, he said, noting there is “historically low inventory and a lot of it is aging out.” This is pushing buyers into new aircraft, Farrant said.
GJC forecast business jet deliveries to increase at a CAGR of 5.4 percent through 2025, while dollar volume will have a 7.3 percent CAGR.
Ostrove noted a shorter-term jump in the light segment but longer-term the heavy and medium jets will see the most growth as customers return to longer-range flying. Heavy jets are forecast to have a 6.2 percent CAGR and medium jets 7.6 percent.
Preowned transactions, meanwhile, are anticipated to account for 79.4 percent of the total market. Unlike the new market, however, the preowned market remained strong in 2020 with the number of transactions coming in ahead of 2019 while dollar volume softened slightly.
“We saw a return to the market for people who were traditional buyers and we also saw new people move into the market. The preowned market is a great entry point for people moving into aircraft ownership,” said Ostrove.
Moving forward, the preowned market is expected to see sustained and steady growth, with a 4 percent uptick in unit transactions in 2021 and, as heavy aircraft sales strengthen, dollar volumes increasing 17.5 percent at the same time.
“Despite low inventories, demand has continued for preowned business jets,” the GJC forecast states. “The market is forecast to continue to be strong throughout the year as vaccinations accelerate, especially in North America and Europe, and a ‘new normal’ emerges.”
Over the five-year forecast period, preowned unit volume is projected to increase at a 3.2 percent CAGR, while dollar volume will increase at a 7.5 percent CAGR, based on increasing popularity of larger aircraft.
The forecast was derived from a variety of data sources that extends over 30 years coupled with in-house valuation analysis, Ostrove added.
“Several years ago, we began developing a detailed transaction model that gives us greater insight into the new delivery and preowned transaction market to help shape our annual operating plan,” Farrant further explained in the opening of the forecast. “As that model grew in sophistication and accuracy, it went from being an interesting project to a tool that enables us to run scenarios, model outcomes, and shape the way we plan and run our business.”